Sir Patrick Minford: No deal is far better than the present plan

Created on: 29th November 2018

Great Britain must leave the E U without a deal as anything from “plainly uncooperative” Brussels will be “thoroughly inferior” a leading macroeconomist said.

The Brexit negotiations with European Union leaders have “turned out to be a roller-coaster ride” which is not worth the risk, according to the Economists for Free Trade association led by macroeconomist Sir Patrick Minford.

In a new report it argued the best solution for the UK would be to embrace entirely World Trade Organisation regulations and leave the EU without a deal.

The report said: “This involves ending the government’s current obsession with agreeing an EU trade deal - at any cost – and embracing trading with the non-EU world under World Trade Organisation Rules, as we already do with some 60 percent of our world trade, for example the US, Japan, Australia, and most of the rest of the world.”

He said: “Unless the EU changes its tune substantially, any EU trade deal on offer looks as if it will be thoroughly inferior to this WTO Free Trade Option.”

Sir Patrick argued the WTO option would provide the British Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with a four percent gain.

The factors he considered for his analysis are the costs of customs, the cost of trading within the EU, the gain from new free trade agreements with the world and the costs of changing trade standards, which represent the legislation enforce to protect consumers in a country.

On top of this gain, Sir Patrick also said an exit from the EU without any agreement would provide the UK with a further seven percent GDP gain within the next 15 years “when all elements of Brexit are put into the mix”, including a clamp down on immigration and a series of free trade agreements with the rest of the world. 

Posted by David Pilkington

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